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I hope you were some of the fortunate who received rainfall over the last week.  Recent systems have generally favored the east side of the region.  Forecasters have some modest rain chances for this upcoming weekend and early next week, so let’s hope that actually happens.

Attached are the TX Panhandle  and Southern HP Planting Conditions Forecasts for this week.  Here are some highlights:

TX Panhandle Planting Conditions Forecast:

• Colder temperatures are the trend for this week.
• Time to park the planters in the panhandle until early next week.
• Soil temperatures in the Panhandle at 8” generally in the mid-60s; when warmer air temperatures return, the seedbed should warm quickly.

Southern HP Planting Conditions Forecast:

• Plainview:  similar to the Panhandle locations, I recommend waiting until at least Saturday (5/11) or preferably later (hopefully we get some rain by then).
• Lubbock:  Monday through Wednesday this week (5/6 through 5/8) look tempting to plant cotton, but the cooler temps later this week and into the weekend cause concern.  Monday, 5/13, brings warmer temperatures and hopefully moisture.  Next week is when most growers will consider starting traditionally, and I am hopeful that conditions will improve by that time.
• Lamesa:  Similar to Lubbock, conditions at Lamesa look very tempting Monday through Wednesday this week (5/6 through 5/8) to plant.  But cooler temps are forecasted for later this week and into the weekend with increasing chances of rain.  A warming trend is forecasted for next week.  Again, our data indicate that latter May and early June have produced higher yields in the entire area south of Lubbock, so we have plenty of time to plant the crop.
• Soil temperatures in the Southern High Plains are in the mid-60s to lower 70s; when warmer air temperatures return, the seedbed should warm quickly.

If you want your specific location (down to the field level), you can access your own tailored planting conditions forecast on demand with a calculator from North Carolina State University.  Go to:  https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/ag/cotton-planting/  The map will default to a location in NC, but you can scroll the map to your specific location and click on a field.  Click ‘submit’ and the tool will provide a 2-day planting conditions forecast with commentary.

Both chambers have released overviews of their respective farm bill packages.

House Agriculture Committee Chair Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-PA) said, “This bill is a product of an extensive and transparent process, which included soliciting feedback from members of both political parties, stakeholder input from across the nation, and some tough conversations. Each title of this farm bill reflects a commitment to the American farmer and viable pathways to funding those commitments, and is equally responsive to the politics of the 118th Congress. The Committee on Agriculture will mark up this bill on May 23, and I hope for unanimous support in this endeavor to bring stability to producers, protect our nation’s food security and revitalize rural America.”

You can read the House farm bill overview here.

Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) also released her version of the legislation. “This is a serious proposal that reflects bipartisan priorities to keep farmers farming, families fed, and rural communities strong,” she said. “The foundation of every successful Farm Bill is built on holding together the broad, bipartisan coalition of farmers, rural communities, nutrition and hunger advocates, researchers, conservationists, and the climate community. This is that bill, and I welcome my Republican colleagues to take it seriously and rejoin us at the negotiating table so we can finish our work by the end of the year. Farmers, families, and rural communities cannot wait any longer on the 2024 Farm Bill.”

You can read the Senate farm bill overview here.

Ranking Member of the Senate ag committee John Boozman (R-AR) issued a statement regarding Stabenow’s release, saying:

“Chairwoman Stabenow and I have had several conversations about getting our ideas down on paper, so the release of the majority’s framework is a welcome development. My colleagues and I will be soliciting input from stakeholders as we consider these ideas alongside the approach we have constructed in our framework, which will be released after the House considers its bill in the coming weeks. With Chairwoman Stabenow releasing a framework that reflects Senate Democrats’ priorities, and Chairman Thompson’s work to advance legislation out of committee this month, I’m optimistic that real progress on the farm bill can still occur this Congress.

Our actions must reflect the realities in farm country. Farmers are facing challenging times that, by every metric, are likely to continue in the coming years. Considering the farm bill only comes around every five years, we must ensure we do right by our farmers and make meaningful investments in the risk management tools they rely on to weather the storm.”

Bill mark-up for the House version is May 23. As of press time, the Senate has not scheduled their work session. If you have questions, call the office at 806-792-4904.

If you haven’t read PCG CEO Kody Bessent’s take on the new 2022 Emergency Relief Program, click here.

DATES: Funding availability: Application period for Track 1 will begin October 31, 2023. Application period for Track 2 will begin October 31, 2023. Contact your local FSA office for instructions on how to apply for Track 2 — FSA will be mailing out pre-filled applications for Track 1. You may still apply for Track 1 if you do not receive a pre-filled application.

COMMENTS: The U.S. Department of Agriculture Farm Service Agency will consider comments received by January 2, 2024.

ADDRESSES: You may submit comments by the following method: Federal eRulemaking Portal: Go to https://www.regulations.gov and search for Docket ID FSA–2023–0020.

You may also send comments to the Desk Officer for Agriculture, Office of the Information and Regulatory Affairs, Office of Management and Budget, Washington, DC 20503. Comments will be available for public inspection online at https://www.regulations.gov.

Track Overview

Track 1 will provide a streamlined application process for eligible crop and tree losses during the 2022 or 2023 crop years for which a producer had:

-A Federal crop insurance policy that provided coverage for crop production losses or tree losses related to the qualifying disaster events and received an indemnity for a crop and unit, excluding:

• crops with an intended use of grazing,
• livestock policies,
• forage seeding,
• Margin Protection Plan policies purchased without a base policy,
• banana plants insured under the Hawaii Tropical Trees provisions, and
• policies issued in Puerto Rico; or

-NAP coverage and received a NAP payment for a crop and unit, excluding crops with an intended use of grazing. The applicable Federal crop insurance policies and NAP provide payments to producers for crop and tree losses due to eligible causes of loss, as defined in the producer’s Federal crop insurance policy or NAP regulations and basic provisions. RMA and FSA are using data submitted by producers for Federal crop insurance or NAP purposes to calculate a producer’s eligible loss under Track 1. The Track 1 payment calculation is intended to compensate eligible crop and tree producers for a percentage of that loss determined by the applicable ERP factor, which varies based on the producer’s level of Federal crop insurance or NAP coverage.

Track 2 will provide assistance for eligible revenue, production, and quality losses of eligible crops not included in Track 1 — similar to Phase 2 of the previous ERP program. FSA has determined that the best estimation of such losses is a producer’s decrease in disaster year revenue compared to a benchmark year revenue, where benchmark year revenue represents a producer’s revenue prior to the impact of the qualifying disaster event.

Payment Factoring

According to the notice issued by USDA, progressive factoring will be used to calculate payments. See figure 1.

The basic examples used by the notice break down how payments will be calculated.

For example, to apply progressive factoring to a calculated loss (after subtraction of indemnities) of $5,000, FSA would multiply: