SEPTEMBER PRODUCTION ESTIMATE UPS THE
ANTE FOR A RECORD-BREAKING 2010 COTTON CROP

Friday, Lubbock, Texas                              By Shawn Wade

      Do big crops really get bigger? Maybe not always, but the September 2010 USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Production report's projection for Upland cotton production on the Texas High Plains certainly seems to be lending credence to the adage.

      In fact, the 100,000-bale increase in the High Plains region's overall production estimate, to a record-setting 6.08 million bales, may have actually caught a few people in the industry looking for smaller numbers by surprise.

      The reason many people thought the estimate might go down was a hot, dry August which conventional wisdom held should lower prospects for non-irrigated acreage on the High Plains and in other parts of the state as well.

      While the September estimate does indicate lower yields throughout the Rolling Plains and Trans-Pecos region, most likely a direct result of that hot August weather pattern, improved prospects for irrigated acreage and a dryland crop that is apparently holding its own pushed the High Plains forecast up instead of down. Surprisingly, estimates for the Coastal Bend region were slightly improved, although the impacts of this week's tropical storms have yet to be figured in the mix.

      Overall Texas production remained unchanged from the 8.8 million bales forecast a month ago.

      On the High Plains the major change from August to September was the increase in yield prospects in the irrigation-heavy district 1-N. Yield in the district was increased to an estimated 1,061 pounds per acre, up 56 pounds from the August estimate. That yield level, combined with the district's projected 760,000 harvested acres projects total production for the district of 1.68 million bales.

      District 1-S is a slightly more complicated picture to figure out since it contains roughly 80 percent of the total cotton acreage on the High Plains. That could be further broken down to two-thirds of all High Plains irrigated acreage and as much as 80-85 percent of the region's non-irrigated acres.

      This split is one reason why the yield for district 1-S is so much lower than the mostly irrigated acreage in 1-N. USDA's September yield forecast of 744 pounds per acre is an increase of 13 pounds per acre. Overall the district is expected to harvest 2.84 million acres of cotton and still produce 4.4 million bales.

      Assuming 1-S irrigated yields are estimated at around 1,000 pounds per acre, the district's dryland acres will need to average about 500 pounds per acre to meet the 6.08 million bale USDA forecast.

      While there are definitely some dryland acres that will yield as little as one-third to one-half bale per acre, dryland acres that could produce 1.5 bales or more ought to help keep the overall dryland yield close to the one-bale mark.

      So even though the dryland crop runs the gamut yield-wise, a bale an acre across the board for dryland cotton is certainly not out of the question.

      Revisions in harvested acreage for the region indicate that approximately 160,000 acres have been abandoned to date out of the 3.76 million acres reported as planted. This puts total projected abandonment at only 4.25 percent.

      One of the unusual things to be heard about the crop at this stage is the amount of open cotton that many producers are already seeing in their fields. While this certainly doesn't hold true for every part of the region, it appears, based on the anecdotal evidence,` that harvest aid applications will likely be starting in some areas within the next week to ten days.

      That said, don't be surprised with reports of cotton being harvested and ginned on the High Plains before the end of September as the crop races toward harvest.

      The table below includes district level figures for Texas as reported by the Texas Agricultural Statistics Service and published by USDA NASS.

 

Texas District Estimates 2009 and 2010*

Upland Cotton

Planted Acres

Harvested Acres

Yield per Acre

Production

2009

2010

2009

2010

2009

2010

2009

2010

District

1,000 acres

1,000 acres

pounds

1,000 bales

1 - N

600.0

810.0

501.0

760.0

880

1,061

918.0

1,680.0

1 - S

2,667.0

2,950.0

1,929.0

2,840.0

642

744

2,579.0

4,400.0

2 - N

340.5

375.0

286.0

370.0

594

584

354.0

450.0

2 - S

509.0

515.0

407.0

510.0

369

659

313.0

700.0

4

62.5

110.0

56.7

105.0

477

640

56.3

140.0

7

176.0

200.0

136.2

195.0

579

591

164.2

240.0

8 - N

51.5

55.0

24.2

53.0

712

1,177

35.9

130.0

8 - S

338.0

280.0

16.7

275.0

356

899

12.4

515.0

9

90.5

136.0

77.4

130.0

526

886

84.8

240.0

10 - S

74.7

95.0

23.2

90.0

602

747

29.1

140.0

OtherDist.

90.3

74.0

42.6

72.0

826

1,100

73.3

165.0

State

5,000

5,600

3,500

5,400

634

782.0

4,620.0

8,800.0

Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service;
* = preliminary September 2010

 

THE COTTON USA ADVANTAGE

CCI FAX - September 10, 2010

 

      CCI's unique exhibit at Intertextile Home Shanghai attracts crowds. A diverse crowd of companies visited CCI's cotton boll -shaped booth to inquire about the COTTON USA licensing program. Two COTTON USA Mark licensees, Dinosaur and Casablanca, exhibited with CCI to showcase their U.S. cotton products and illustrate their commitment to COTTON USA. CCI also featured U.S. cotton products by Mark licensees Goldsun; Hong Liu; Ibena; Loftex; Nantong Dadong Co., Ltd.; and Yantai North Home Textile Co., Ltd.

      Some 1,017 companies exhibited at Intertextile this year, a 12 percent increase over 2009. CCI organized a COTTON USA seminar concurrent with Intertextile to educate the media and COTTON USA Mark licensees about CCI's activities in the China and Hong Kong region.

      Registration opens for the COTTON USA Mediterranean Supply Chain Forum on Oct. 26-29. This event will bring together approximately 30 garment manufacturers from Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia to meet 15 Turkish yarn and fabric suppliers to identify new sources of nearby materials. Included in the program are presentations on sourcing trends by sourcing offices and European brands, as well as information on the cotton market and trade trends for European markets.

      Italian consumers and media love cotton. Italian economic and consumer press showed a wide interest in the results of the Global Lifestyle Monitor Survey, commissioned by CCI and Cotton Incorporated. The media developed stories following the conference highlighting that cotton is by far the favorite fiber of Italian consumers. The articles published in newspapers, magazines and online reached 1.8 million readers, garnering an earned advertising value of $420,305.

      COTTON USA Turkey launches a redesigned web site, www.cottonusaturkey.com. The site has a special focus on environmental issues and provides online registration for CCI and Cotton Incorporated events, such as seminars and trend presentations.

 

2010 HIGH PLAINS CROP TOUR &
INDUSTRY FIELD DAY EVENT CALENDAR

Date:

Event:

 

September 7

Yoakum County Crop Tour

 

September 10

Lubbock County Crop Tour

 

September 14

Floyd County Crop Tour

 

September 15

West Texas Agricultural Chemicals Institute Annual Meeting

Scottish Rite Temple (Learning Center);1101 70th Street, Lubbock, TX

September 16

Hale County Harvest Aid

 

September 17

Swisher County Harvest Aid

 

September 21

Dawson County Harvest Aid

 

September 21

Briscoe County Crop Tour

 

September 21

Randall County Crop Tour

 

September 22

Lynn County Crop Tour

 

 

 

 

Industry Field Days:

 

All-Tex Seed Field Day – Levelland, TX
Tours 10:00am – 2:00pm; Lunch to be provided to all participants.

September 22

Monsanto Technology Showcase Field Day

Steve Chapman Farm, Lorenzo, TX, 9:00 am

 

September 22 - Consultant

September 23 - Producer

Americot/NexGen Field Day & Shrimp Boil:

Lamesa, Ladies Auxiliary Building, 9:00 amÉÉ.......
Seminole, Gaines County Park, 9:00 amÉÉ...ÉÉÉ
Ropesville, Ropes Community Center, 8:45 amÉ...
New Home, New Home Community Bldg, 9:00 am....
Idalou, Idalou Community Clubhouse, 9:00 amÉÉ...

 

 

September 27

September 28

September 29

September 30

October 1

Bayer CropScience Cotton Production Field Day

Idalou Breeding Station, 9:30 am each day

 

September 29 - Southern Producers

September 30 - Northern Producers

 

THE HAND THAT FEEDS U.S.

http://www.thehandthatfeedsus.org/

 

NRCS LWG MEETINGS ALLOW PRODUCER INPUT
ON LOCAL CONSERVATION PROGRAM PRIORITIES

      The USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and the Soil and Water Conservation Districts invite the public and any agencies with an interest in conservation issues to participate in Local Work Group (LWG) meetings.

      The purpose of the meetings is to receive input from a broad range of local agencies, organizations, local agricultural leaders, businesses, and individuals that have an interest in natural resource concerns and needs to identify resource concerns.

      For more information and for persons with disabilities who require special accommodations and/or alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, Large print, audiotape, etc.) associated with this meeting should contact the local USDA-NRCS office in their local county, listed under USDA in the Yellow Pages, or access the information on the Texas NRCS Web site at http://www.tx.nrcs.usda.gov.

2011 EQIP LWG Meeting
Dates, Times and Locations

updated as of 09/10/10

County:

Location:

Time:

Date:

Fisher

USDA Service Center, 601 W. South 1st Street, Roby

10:00 am

9/13/10

Bailey

Coliseum, 2206 West American Blvd., Muleshoe

10:00 am

9/14/10

Childress

Greenbelt Electric Coop. Meeting Room, US Highway 83, Childress

9:30 am

9/14/10

Collingsworth

Robertson Restaurant, U.S. Highway 83, Wellington

8:30 am

9/14/10

Hemphill

Hemphill County Exhibition Barn, Exhibition Road, Canadian

7:00 pm

9/14/10

Kent

Kent County Courthouse, Highway 70, Jayton

5:30 pm

9/14/10

Randall

Randall Co. Agrilife Extension, 200 North Brown Road, Canyon

10:00 am

9/14/10

Swisher

Swisher County Annex Building, 310 West Broadway, Tulia

10:00 am

9/15/10

Carson

USDA Service Center, 221 Euclid Street, Panhandle

8:00 am

9/16/10

Stonewall

Stonewall County Courthouse, 128 West 6th Street, Aspermont

9:00 am

9/16/10